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Further from each other than from what they fear

The two American parties, and the two accusations that define the 2026 cycle, measured with one instrument in one document.

The finding

Each American party sits almost exactly the same distance from the thing it is accused of being. Neither accusation survives contact with the measurement. But they fail on entirely different axes, and the difference is the whole content of both arguments.

The two parties are further from each other than the Republican Party is from interwar fascism. That sentence is true, and anyone who repeats it without the next paragraph is misusing this document.

The 18.8 between the parties is almost entirely content: nine points on economics, eleven on social order, ten on the rule of membership. They disagree profoundly about what they want. The 16.0 to Italian Fascism is almost entirely form: ten points on method, nine on the scale of decision, six on the organisation of power. Those are not the same kind of gap. A single distance figure cannot tell them apart, which is precisely why this atlas reports six axes and not one number. How the scoring works.

What moved, and when

Both sides of American argument are correct that the other has changed. Both are wrong about which axis.

Subject one: the Republican Party

1854– · United States · Conservative · coding confidence medium

The institutional party, coded separately from the movement inside it, because the two have measurably diverged.

Core principles

Limited federal government, lower taxes, strong defence, religious and family traditionalism, gun rights.

Economic model

Tax reduction, deregulation, energy production, opposition to expansive federal welfare; tariffs since 2017.

Organisation of powers

Federalism, judicial appointments, state control of election administration.

Reading note. Expert surveys record no substantial movement on the economic axis since 2000 and a substantial movement on the authority axis, which is why the two are plotted separately here.

The evidence, cell by cell

Trajectory

Nearest organisations by measured distance

Proximity here is similarity of stated position. It is not endorsement and not resemblance in outcome.

• Reform UK2.2
• Conservative Party of Canada3.2
• Papua New Guinea Politics3.3
• Croatian Democratic Union3.5
• UK Conservative Party4.0
• Liberal–National Coalition4.1

Subject two: the Democratic Party

1828– · United States · Social Liberal · coding confidence medium

The institutional party across its current programme and governing record.

Core principles

Regulated capitalism, expanded health coverage, civil rights, climate action, and defence of existing institutional procedure.

Economic model

Subsidised insurance markets, industrial policy and clean energy investment, higher taxes on high earners, sectoral regulation.

Organisation of powers

Federal constitutional democracy; favours expanding voting access and federal standards.

Reading note. On the economic axis it sits to the right of most European Christian democratic parties of the 1970s, and well right of any European social democratic party today.

The evidence, cell by cell

Trajectory

Nearest organisations by measured distance

• Australian Labor Party1.7
• Liberal Party of Canada2.4
• UK Labour Party2.6
• PSOE2.6
• Workers' Party2.6
• Indian National Congress3.0

Subject three: the movement, coded separately

Leaving this out would be the partisan choice. The movement inside the Republican Party is coded as its own entry because it diverges from the institutional party by six points on the organisation of power, and because collapsing them would conceal the single most important finding in this brief.

2015– · United States · National Populist · coding confidence low

Coded at the lowest confidence rating in the dataset and flagged contested, for the reasons given below.

Core principles

National restoration through a leader who claims to embody the real people against a corrupt establishment; borders, tariffs and sovereignty.

Economic model

Broad tariffs, corporate and income tax cuts, deregulation, protection of existing entitlement programmes, industrial subsidies for chips and energy.

Organisation of powers

Operates through elections while contesting the 2020 result; expanded use of executive power, pressure on civil service independence, prosecutorial and media conflicts.

Reading note. The most disputed coding in the dataset, and coded at low confidence for that reason. Scholars of fascism divide sharply: some place it inside the fascist tradition, others argue it lacks the paramilitary mass party, the corporatist economics and the explicit rejection of elections that define the historical cases. The atlas records both the elevated authority score and the substantial distance from the 1930s coordinates, and takes no position beyond that.

The evidence, cell by cell

Nearest organisations by measured distance

• Alternative for Germany2.2
• Religious Zionism3.0
• AUR3.3
• Ivorian Politics3.3
• Bolsonarismo3.9
• Christian Nationalism3.9

This is the uncomfortable result and it is reported rather than buried. The movement sits 10.1 from Italian Fascism, against 16.0 for the institutional party. Its nearest neighbours are European and Latin American radical-right parties rather than Anglosphere conservative ones. That is a real finding. It is also coded at low confidence and flagged contested, because qualified specialists divide on it, and the divide is about which features define the term rather than about what the facts are.

The two accusations, tested identically

Two parties that are not exceptional

The most deflating result in this brief has nothing to do with either accusation. Measured against three hundred and nineteen organisations across twenty-five centuries, both American parties are ordinary members of ordinary Anglosphere party families. The Republicans sit closest to Reform UK and the Canadian Conservatives. The Democrats sit closest to the Australian Labor Party and the Canadian Liberals — nearer to Australian Labor than the two American parties are to each other, by a factor of eleven.

A political argument conducted as a civilisational emergency is being had between two parties that a comparative instrument files alongside the governing parties of Canada and Australia. That finding is available to anyone who applies the same measurement to both, and it is not available to anyone who applies it to one.

What this brief does not establish

Challenge any cell in this document

Every score above carries a rationale and at least one artefact that can be checked without taking anyone’s word for it. If one is wrong, the useful response is to name the cell, name the evidence, and say what the score should be instead. Thirty scores in this atlas have been changed that way, each with the reason recorded publicly.